Simulating the effect of climate change on the output of major crops in Benue State Nigeria


Ater PI, Asogwa BC and Bogbenda A

This study was carried out to simulate the effects of climate change on the output of major crops (yam, rice and soya beans) in Benue state, Nigeria. The study used time series data from1986 to 2012.The Johansen Cointegration test employed confirmed long run equilibrium relationships among the variables. The variables were cointegrated of the (1,1,) order. Following the use of Error Correction Model (ECM), the result showed that relative humidity had a significant effect on the output of yam with a negative coefficient of (-8.17). Temperature and relative humidity had significant effect on rice output with temperature having a positive coefficient of 4.69 and relative humidity negative of (-2.22). For maize output, temperature had a significant effect with a positive coefficient of 5.76.For soya beans output, temperature had a positive coefficient of 42.94 and relative humidity, negative coefficient of (-46.49). The maximum mean rainfall, temperature and relative humidity recorded in the area between 1986 and 2012 were 108.36mm, 32.720 c and 61.87% respectively. The forecasted result of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity between 2013 - 2062 showed the following maxima, 131.26mm, 34.200 c and 70.56% respectively. The result of forecasted outputs (using Average Model Forecasting Approach) of crops showed increases from the computed means. Simulation of one percent (1%) increase over the preceding year of rainfall for ten years (2013 - 2022) showed increment in the outputs of all the crops, for yam, rice and soya beans as 2.41%, 0.41% and 1.43% in that sequence, using the Monte carlo simulation methods. Based on the findings, the study recommended that, there is need to educate and encourage farmers by relevant agencies to improve traditional methods of mitigating extreme effects of climate change variables. Adequate funding of climate related research centers by Government for up to date and timely release of accurate climatic information to help farmers prepare early against unfavorable climatic conditions, there is need for public sensitization on the causes and dangers associated with climate change as well its implication on agriculture, since climate change is mostly caused by human activities

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